Italian Serie A Football Prediction Ratings 2009/2010

Prediction Ratings are what they say they are - ratings that will tell you where the value bet is. They are based on the last 4 home matches and the last 4 away matches.

The ratings are based on attacking play in previous performances, which is the only way you can realistically rate a team properly.

What do the numbers mean?

I like to say that 20pts difference is the same as 1 clear goal superior to the other team.

Ok here is an example of 3 matches and I'll explain how I see what the ratings are telling me:

Example 1

Arsenal 91 v 21 Hull +70 1.22 4.40 15.00

This would suggest Arsenal are no value at all. The ratings have them over 2 goals superior, so an obvious win on the cards.

Example 2

Wigan 45 v Arsenal 23 +22  4.30 3.15 1.60

This would suggest that backing Wigan and the draw is good value,  as Arsenal seem to be average away from home.

Example 3

Leeds 67 v 35 Leicester +32 2.50 3.25 2.50

This would suggest backing Leeds and the draw would be a strong bet, as they are clearly superior and perhaps Leicester were being priced on reputation, rather than actual performances.

From Mid December 2009 - Additional Ratings!

You will see that there are 2 numbers in the centre as well now. This denotes each teams average over the last 2 games, which should give the ratings another level of accuracy.

Below are the latest prediction ratings for the Italian Serie A.

12/03/2010	Catania	37.75	32.50	32.50 - 31.00	31.00	40.75	Inter Milan	-3.00
13/03/2010	Napoli	34.25	37.50	37.50 - 33.00	33.00	39.50	Fiorentina	-5.25
14/03/2010	Bologna	29.75	38.00	38.00 - 40.00	40.00	42.50	Sampdoria	-12.75
14/03/2010	Genoa	38.25	46.50	46.50 - 21.50	21.50	29.75	Cagliari	+8.50
14/03/2010	Juventus	36.50	39.00	39.00 - 53.00	53.00	34.75	Siena	+1.75
14/03/2010	Lazio	43.00	35.50	35.50 - 29.00	29.00	26.25	Bari	+16.75
14/03/2010	Livorno	32.75	35.00	35.00 - 34.50	34.50	33.75	Roma	-1.00
14/03/2010	Milan	50.00	47.00	47.00 - 28.50	28.50	26.50	Chievo	+23.50
14/03/2010	Parma	29.00	28.50	28.50 - 32.00	32.00	27.75	Atalanta	+1.25
14/03/2010	Udinese	53.75	60.50	60.50 - 45.50	45.50	40.50	Palermo	+13.25

06/03/2010	Fiorentina	52.25	48.50	48.50 - 39.50	39.50	32.75	Juventus	+19.50
06/03/2010	Roma	50.75	47.50	47.50 - 34.00	34.00	38.00	Milan	+12.75
07/03/2010	Atalanta	39.50	43.50	43.50 - 25.00	25.00	28.25	Udinese	+11.25
07/03/2010	Bari	34.00	26.00	26.00 - 28.50	28.50	25.75	Chievo	+8.25
07/03/2010	Bologna	23.00	20.00	20.00 - 42.00	42.00	44.25	Napoli	-21.25
07/03/2010	Cagliari	33.50	37.00	37.00 - 18.50	18.50	17.00	Catania	+16.50
07/03/2010	Inter Milan	38.75	34.00	34.00 - 17.00	17.00	17.25	Genoa	+21.50
07/03/2010	Palermo	41.00	38.50	38.50 - 34.00	34.00	30.50	Livorno	+10.50
07/03/2010	Sampdoria	48.75	47.00	47.00 - 56.00	56.00	38.25	Lazio	+10.50
07/03/2010	Siena	31.25	31.00	31.00 - 28.00	28.00	26.00	Parma	+5.25

27/02/2010	Catania	40.50	24.50	24.50 - 26.50	26.50	24.75	Bari	+15.75
27/02/2010	Lazio	42.75	38.50	38.50 - 33.50	33.50	48.75	Fiorentina	-6.00
28/02/2010	Chievo	21.75	25.00	25.00 - 26.50	26.50	33.25	Cagliari	-11.50
28/02/2010	Genoa	40.00	38.00	38.00 - 21.50	21.50	20.25	Bologna	+19.75
28/02/2010	Juventus	38.00	53.00	53.00 - 47.50	47.50	38.25	Palermo	-0.25
28/02/2010	Livorno	32.50	33.00	33.00 - 36.50	36.50	31.50	Siena	+1.00
28/02/2010	Milan	53.25	41.50	41.50 - 31.50	31.50	32.00	Atalanta	+21.25
28/02/2010	Napoli	29.50	30.00	30.00 - 33.50	33.50	31.25	Roma	-1.75
28/02/2010	Parma	25.00	23.00	23.00 - 34.00	34.00	35.00	Sampdoria	-10.00
28/02/2010	Udinese	54.75	73.00	73.00 - 39.50	39.50	40.75	Inter Milan	+14.00

24/02/2010	Fiorentina	55.50	52.00	52.00 - 41.00	41.00	43.00	Milan	+12.50
24/02/2010	Udinese	49.50	47.00	47.00 - 38.00	38.00	32.75	Cagliari	+16.75

20/02/2010	Genoa	38.75	30.00	30.00 - 39.50	39.50	36.50	Udinese	+2.25
20/02/2010	Inter Milan	43.25	47.50	47.50 - 45.00	45.00	35.00	Sampdoria	+8.25
21/02/2010	Atalanta	39.50	56.00	56.00 - 24.50	24.50	26.25	Chievo	+13.25
21/02/2010	Bari	41.50	44.00	44.00 - 42.00	42.00	44.00	Milan	-2.50
21/02/2010	Bologna	22.50	21.50	21.50 - 24.50	24.50	35.50	Juventus	-13.00
21/02/2010	Cagliari	35.50	27.00	27.00 - 14.00	14.00	21.00	Parma	+14.50
21/02/2010	Fiorentina	56.25	56.00	56.00 - 31.00	31.00	32.75	Livorno	+23.50
21/02/2010	Palermo	45.25	49.00	49.00 - 46.00	46.00	33.75	Lazio	+11.50
21/02/2010	Roma	51.00	57.50	57.50 - 26.50	26.50	20.75	Catania	+30.25
21/02/2010	Siena	40.25	37.50	37.50 - 41.50	41.50	50.25	Napoli	-10.00

12/02/2010	Milan	53.50	53.00	53.00 - 31.50	31.50	38.50	Udinese	+15.00
13/02/2010	Roma	52.25	54.00	54.00 - 35.50	35.50	37.00	Palermo	+15.25
13/02/2010	Sampdoria	42.75	48.50	48.50 - 46.00	46.00	50.50	Fiorentina	-7.75
14/02/2010	Cagliari	33.50	30.00	30.00 - 23.50	23.50	25.50	Bari	+8.00
14/02/2010	Catania	43.25	43.00	43.00 - 23.50	23.50	29.50	Atalanta	+13.75
14/02/2010	Chievo	28.00	22.00	22.00 - 16.50	16.50	27.75	Siena	+0.25
14/02/2010	Juventus	34.00	34.00	34.00 - 10.00	10.00	15.50	Genoa	+18.50
14/02/2010	Livorno	33.75	30.50	30.50 - 27.00	27.00	23.25	Bologna	+10.50
14/02/2010	Napoli	30.00	31.00	31.00 - 50.50	50.50	47.00	Inter Milan	-17.00
14/02/2010	Parma	35.50	29.50	29.50 - 20.50	20.50	20.00	Lazio	+15.50

10/02/2010

Parma

36.25

27.00

27.00 - 42.00

42.00

40.25

Inter Milan

-4.00

06/02/2010	Livorno	28.50	32.00	32.00 - 26.00	26.00	35.50	Juventus	-7.00
06/02/2010	Palermo	48.75	43.50	43.50 - 24.00	24.00	23.25	Parma	+25.50
07/02/2010	Atalanta	33.00	35.50	35.50 - 23.00	23.00	30.75	Bari	+2.25
07/02/2010	Bologna	29.25	26.00	26.00 - 45.00	45.00	44.25	Milan	-15.00
07/02/2010	Fiorentina	54.00	59.00	59.00 - 33.00	33.00	35.75	Roma	+18.25
07/02/2010	Genoa	40.00	42.00	42.00 - 23.00	23.00	34.00	Chievo	+6.00
07/02/2010	Inter Milan	44.50	43.50	43.50 - 40.00	40.00	42.50	Cagliari	+2.00
07/02/2010	Lazio	43.25	50.50	50.50 - 15.50	15.50	28.50	Catania	+14.75
07/02/2010	Siena	39.00	31.50	31.50 - 36.00	36.00	28.25	Sampdoria	+10.75
07/02/2010	Udinese	35.00	36.50	36.50 - 46.50	46.50	49.25	Napoli	-14.25

30/01/2010	Bari	40.75	42.00	42.00 - 29.00	29.00	31.75	Palermo	+9.00
30/01/2010	Napoli	34.00	29.00	29.00 - 17.50	17.50	19.50	Genoa	+14.50
31/01/2010	Cagliari	37.00	44.00	44.00 - 64.00	64.00	47.75	Fiorentina	-10.75
31/01/2010	Catania	37.50	56.50	56.50 - 33.50	33.50	42.50	Udinese	-5.00
31/01/2010	Chievo	28.50	18.50	18.50 - 19.00	19.00	19.75	Bologna	+8.75
31/01/2010	Juventus	34.25	23.00	23.00 - 21.50	21.50	22.25	Lazio	+12.00
31/01/2010	Milan	58.00	65.00	65.00 - 27.00	27.00	26.00	Livorno	+32.00
31/01/2010	Parma	36.25	27.00	27.00 - 42.00	42.00	40.25	Inter Milan	-4.00
31/01/2010	Roma	48.50	44.50	44.50 - 26.50	26.50	27.00	Siena	+21.50
31/01/2010	Sampdoria	42.50	50.50	50.50 - 32.50	32.50	27.50	Atalanta	+15.00

23/01/2010	Genoa	41.75	47.50	47.50 - 35.50	35.50	34.50	Atalanta	+7.25
23/01/2010	Juventus	39.25	34.00	34.00 - 29.00	29.00	35.00	Roma	+4.25
24/01/2010	Bologna	22.75	23.50	23.50 - 27.50	27.50	35.00	Bari	-12.25
24/01/2010	Catania	30.25	43.50	43.50 - 28.00	28.00	30.00	Parma	+0.25
24/01/2010	Inter Milan	40.25	39.00	39.00 - 46.00	46.00	39.00	Milan	+1.25
24/01/2010	Lazio	48.50	47.00	47.00 - 28.00	28.00	31.75	Chievo	+16.75
24/01/2010	Livorno	27.75	37.00	37.00 - 59.00	59.00	41.50	Napoli	-13.75
24/01/2010	Palermo	42.25	41.50	41.50 - 55.00	55.00	50.00	Fiorentina	-7.75
24/01/2010	Siena	39.25	43.00	43.00 - 27.50	27.50	41.50	Cagliari	-2.25
24/01/2010	Udinese	37.75	52.00	52.00 - 25.00	25.00	15.50	Sampdoria	+22.25

20/01/2010	Bologna	30.00	32.50	32.50 - 22.50	22.50	26.00	Atalanta	+4.00
20/01/2010	Genoa	40.50	38.00	38.00 - 38.50	38.50	34.25	Bari	+6.25

16/01/2010	Bari	37.25	39.00	39.00 - 43.50	43.50	47.50	Inter Milan	-10.25
16/01/2010	Cagliari	40.00	37.00	37.00 - 34.50	34.50	28.25	Livorno	+11.75
17/01/2010	Atalanta	22.25	23.00	23.00 - 19.50	19.50	24.75	Lazio	-2.50
17/01/2010	Chievo	39.00	34.00	34.00 - 46.50	46.50	47.00	Juventus	-8.00
17/01/2010	Fiorentina	50.00	56.50	56.50 - 19.50	19.50	17.00	Bologna	+33.00
17/01/2010	Milan	51.00	54.00	54.00 - 39.00	39.00	37.75	Siena	+13.25
17/01/2010	Napoli	33.75	29.00	29.00 - 38.50	38.50	31.50	Palermo	+2.25
17/01/2010	Parma	40.00	41.50	41.50 - 45.50	45.50	40.00	Udinese	0.00
17/01/2010	Roma	49.50	50.50	50.50 - 21.00	21.00	26.75	Genoa	+22.75
17/01/2010	Sampdoria	39.50	37.00	37.00 - 15.00	15.00	34.25	Catania	+5.25
20/01/2010	Bologna	30.00	32.50	32.50 - 22.50	22.50	26.00	Atalanta	+4.00
20/01/2010	Genoa	40.50	38.00	38.00 - 38.50	38.50	34.25	Bari	+6.25

09/01/2010	Inter Milan	48.50	45.50	45.50 - 27.50	27.50	41.25	Siena	+7.25
09/01/2010	Roma	60.00	52.50	52.50 - 45.00	45.00	34.00	Chievo	+26.00
10/01/2010	Bologna	28.00	22.00	22.00 - 45.00	45.00	36.25	Cagliari	-8.25
10/01/2010	Fiorentina	43.75	49.00	49.00 - 42.50	42.50	25.50	Bari	+18.25
10/01/2010	Genoa	37.50	36.00	36.00 - 41.50	41.50	40.75	Catania	-3.25
10/01/2010	Juventus	40.75	45.50	45.50 - 43.50	43.50	46.00	Milan	-5.25
10/01/2010	Livorno	26.75	25.00	25.00 - 22.50	22.50	29.50	Parma	-2.75
10/01/2010	Napoli	43.50	39.00	39.00 - 20.50	20.50	16.25	Sampdoria	+27.25
10/01/2010	Palermo	46.25	54.00	54.00 - 33.50	33.50	24.75	Atalanta	+21.50
10/01/2010	Udinese	35.25	33.50	33.50 - 23.00	23.00	24.75	Lazio	+10.50

06/01/2010	Atalanta	28.50	30.50	30.50 - 52.00	52.00	42.50	Napoli	-14.00
06/01/2010	Bari	38.50	39.50	39.50 - 51.50	51.50	36.00	Udinese	+2.50
06/01/2010	Cagliari	38.50	30.00	30.00 - 38.50	38.50	37.50	Roma	+1.00
06/01/2010	Catania	22.50	18.50	18.50 - 20.50	20.50	17.25	Bologna	+5.25
06/01/2010	Chievo	39.25	38.50	38.50 - 38.50	38.50	44.25	Inter Milan	-5.00
06/01/2010	Lazio	43.25	36.00	36.00 - 25.00	25.00	26.75	Livorno	+16.50
06/01/2010	Milan	43.25	51.00	51.00 - 21.50	21.50	26.00	Genoa	+17.25
06/01/2010	Parma	39.50	45.50	45.50 - 45.00	45.00	46.00	Juventus	-6.50
06/01/2010	Sampdoria	39.50	34.50	34.50 - 34.50	34.50	36.50	Palermo	+3.00
06/01/2010	Siena	38.75	46.50	46.50 - 31.50	31.50	37.00	Fiorentina	+1.75

19/12/2009	Bologna	28.00	22.00	22.00 - 33.50	33.50	24.75	Atalanta	+3.25
19/12/2009	Fiorentina	43.75	49.00	49.00 - 43.50	43.50	46.00	Milan	-2.25
20/12/2009	Genoa	37.50	36.00	36.00 - 42.50	42.50	25.50	Bari	+12.00
20/12/2009	Inter Milan	48.50	41.50	41.50 - 30.00	30.00	25.75	Lazio	+22.75
20/12/2009	Juventus	47.50	44.50	44.50 - 53.50	53.50	44.50	Catania	+3.00
20/12/2009	Livorno	23.75	18.50	18.50 - 6.00	6.00	8.25	Sampdoria	+15.50
20/12/2009	Napoli	51.50	38.50	38.50 - 35.50	35.50	34.25	Chievo	+17.25
20/12/2009	Palermo	45.00	43.00	43.00 - 36.50	36.50	35.75	Siena	+9.25
20/12/2009	Roma	56.00	48.50	48.50 - 32.00	32.00	38.00	Parma	+18.00
20/12/2009	Udinese	35.25	33.50	33.50 - 45.00	45.00	36.25	Cagliari	-1.00

12/12/2009	Bari	33.00	35.50	-	47.50	33.75	Juventus	-0.75
12/12/2009	Cagliari	44.25	43.00	-	24.00	37.75	Napoli	+6.50
13/12/2009	Atalanta	25.00	21.50	-	51.50	50.50	Inter Milan	-25.50
13/12/2009	Catania	22.25	17.00	-	22.00	19.75	Livorno	+2.50
13/12/2009	Chievo	42.50	44.00	-	45.00	44.75	Fiorentina	-2.25
13/12/2009	Lazio	48.25	50.00	-	32.50	33.50	Genoa	+14.75
13/12/2009	Milan	43.00	48.00	-	24.50	31.25	Palermo	+11.75
13/12/2009	Parma	40.50	38.50	-	14.50	16.00	Bologna	+24.50
13/12/2009	Sampdoria	43.50	42.00	-	41.00	45.50	Roma	-2.00
13/12/2009	Siena	26.75	35.50	-	34.50	38.50	Udinese	-11.75

05/12/2009	Juventus	46.75	36.00	-	50.00	49.50	Inter Milan	-2.75
05/12/2009	Milan	36.00	35.50	-	12.00	22.50	Sampdoria	+13.50
06/12/2009	Bologna	28.50	27.50	-	20.50	32.50	Udinese	-4.00
06/12/2009	Fiorentina	45.25	43.50	-	29.50	32.50	Atalanta	+12.75
06/12/2009	Genoa	28.50	43.00	-	36.50	38.75	Parma	-10.25
06/12/2009	Livorno	29.00	28.50	-	23.00	32.50	Chievo	-3.50
06/12/2009	Napoli	47.00	48.00	-	30.00	25.75	Bari	+21.25
06/12/2009	Palermo	47.50	38.50	-	55.50	41.75	Cagliari	+5.75
06/12/2009	Roma	54.50	67.50	-	26.50	27.75	Lazio	+26.75
06/12/2009	Siena	30.75	31.00	-	40.00	35.50	Catania	-4.75

28/11/2009	Genoa	25.00	39.00	-	10.50	24.50	Sampdoria	+0.50
28/11/2009	Udinese	34.25	23.50	-	28.50	22.50	Livorno	+11.75
29/11/2009	Atalanta	23.75	26.50	-	36.50	41.50	Roma	-17.75
29/11/2009	Bari	26.00	37.50	-	55.00	34.00	Siena	-8.00
29/11/2009	Cagliari	39.00	47.00	-	47.00	42.75	Juventus	-3.75
29/11/2009	Catania	29.00	26.50	-	32.00	45.50	Milan	-16.50
29/11/2009	Chievo	49.25	40.00	-	38.50	29.25	Palermo	+20.00
29/11/2009	Inter Milan	48.25	51.50	-	42.50	44.25	Fiorentina	+4.00
29/11/2009	Lazio	56.00	50.50	-	14.00	22.50	Bologna	+33.50
29/11/2009	Parma	34.75	33.50	-	33.00	33.75	Napoli	+1.00

21/11/2009	Bologna	34.25	34.00	-	49.50	44.75	Inter Milan	-10.50
21/11/2009	Fiorentina	52.25	38.50	-	44.00	41.00	Parma	+11.25
22/11/2009	Juventus	47.25	50.50	-	42.50	37.50	Udinese	+9.75
22/11/2009	Livorno	29.25	29.00	-	30.50	28.50	Genoa	+0.75
22/11/2009	Milan	40.00	38.00	-	27.50	33.75	Cagliari	+6.25
22/11/2009	Napoli	54.25	64.50	-	21.50	29.25	Lazio	+25.00
22/11/2009	Palermo	50.00	47.00	-	35.50	27.75	Catania	+22.25
22/11/2009	Roma	56.00	63.50	-	8.50	25.25	Bari	+30.75
22/11/2009	Sampdoria	35.75	44.50	-	33.00	35.50	Chievo	+0.25
22/11/2009	Siena	28.25	18.00	-	16.00	28.50	Atalanta	-0.25

28/10/2009	Bologna	27.75	34.50	-	13.00	30.00	Siena	-2.25
28/10/2009	Catania	29.00	31.50	-	38.00	32.00	Chievo	-3.00
28/10/2009	Genoa	31.25	11.00	-	46.00	45.00	Fiorentina	-13.75
28/10/2009	Juventus	40.00	44.00	-	38.50	35.25	Sampdoria	+4.75
28/10/2009	Lazio	43.75	61.50	-	28.00	24.50	Cagliari	+19.25
28/10/2009	Livorno	34.75	29.50	-	41.00	34.50	Atalanta	+0.25
28/10/2009	Napoli	48.25	46.00	-	59.00	47.50	Milan	+0.75
28/10/2009	Parma	40.50	36.00	-	42.00	36.50	Bari	+4.00
28/10/2009	Udinese	47.50	45.00	-	46.50	53.25	Roma	-5.75
29/10/2009	Inter Milan	51.50	45.00	-	20.00	27.25	Palermo	+24.25

"middle">42.67

24/10/2009	Inter Milan	52.25	51.50	-	20.00	23.50	Catania	+28.75
24/10/2009	Sampdoria	43.75	27.00	-	31.00	24.75	Bologna	+19.00
25/10/2009	Atalanta	34.00	21.00	-	38.00	32.25	Parma	+1.75
25/10/2009	Bari	25.25	14.50	-	37.00	36.33	Lazio	-11.08
25/10/2009	Cagliari	21.67	22.50	-	26.50	29.25	Genoa	-7.58
25/10/2009	Chievo	49.50	58.50	-	38.50	40.50	Milan	+9.00
25/10/2009	Fiorentina	52.00	66.00	-	26.50	30.50	Napoli	+21.50
25/10/2009	Palermo	51.00	53.00	-	32.50	33.00	Udinese	+18.00
39.00	-	40.00	51.67	Inter Milan	-9.00
17/10/2009	Juventus	39.33	42.00	-	38.50	42.00	Fiorentina	-2.67
18/10/2009	Catania	29.33	30.00	25/10/2009	Roma	39.67	48.50	-	16.50	32.00	Livorno	+7.67
25/10/2009	Siena	30.75	38.50	-	38.50	56.25	Juventus	-25.50

17/10/2009	Genoa	-	40.00	28.75	Cagliari	+0.58
18/10/2009	Chievo	45.67	50.50	-	35.00	34.33	Bari	+11.33
18/10/2009	Lazio	40.00	53.00	-	22.00	27.00	Sampdoria	+13.00
18/10/2009	Livorno	36.67	35.00	-	28.50	28.00	Palermo	+8.67
18/10/2009	Milan	28.67	42.00	-	47.50	48.25	Roma	-19.58
18/10/2009	Napoli	44.67	44.00	-	22.50	25.00	Bologna	+19.67
18/10/2009	Parma	34.00	22.00	-	26.50	36.
03/10/2009	Internazionale	28.67	42.00	-	33.50	33.50	Udinese	-4.83
04/10/2009	Atalanta	41.00	44.00	-	36.00	40.67	Milan	+0.33
04/10/2009	Bologna	25.33	26.50	Siena	-2.33
18/10/2009	Udinese	47.25	43.50	-	27.00	30.33	Atalanta	+16.92

03/10/2009	Bari	28.67	35.50	-	19.50	24.00	Catania	+4.67d>	-	22.00	23.67	Genoa	+1.67
04/10/2009	Cagliari	25.00	25.00	-	39.00	27.67	Chievo	-2.67
04/10/2009	Fiorentina	48.33	51.00	-	35.00	35.00	Lazio	+13.33
04/10/2009	Palermo	46.33	54.00	-	61.00	70.33	Juventus	-24.00
04/10/2009	Roma	42.00	42.00	-	30.50	34.00	Napoli	+8.00
04/10/2009	Sampdoria	47.33	40.00	-	28.00	32.67	Parma	+14.67
04/10/2009	Siena	24.00	21.50	-	38.00	39.33	Livorno	-15.33